Deployment risks expanded conflict

Kiev’s decision to deploy S-300 air defense systems in the Odessa Region puts Russian aircraft, flying in and out of Transnistria, in danger of getting shot down. This, in turn, increases the chances of a military confrontation between Russia and the West, US global intelligence company Stratfor predicted.


Ukraine’s plans to deploy S-300 air defense systems in the Odessa Region, right beside the border with Transnistria, a de-facto independent state wedged between Moldova and Ukraine.

This will increase the chance of a military conflict between Transnistria and Ukraine. But most importantly, it could trigger a possible confrontation between Russia and the West, US global intelligence company Stratfor reported.

The deployment of Ukrainian S-300 in the Odessa Region is troublesome due to the presence of a 1,400 Russian peacekeeper contingent in Transnistria, Stratfor said. The Russian peacekeeping mission was established in the region as per the 1992 ceasefire agreement following the War of Transnistria in 1990-1992.
In a further twist the appointment of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili as the new governor of the Ukrainian region of Odessa could cause an armed conflict in Transnistria, a de-facto independent region in the Republic of Moldova, German daily Die Tageszeitung reported.

According to the German daily, supporters of the anti-Maidan movement in Odessa fear that Saakashvili will start war with Transnistria, using similar methods that he used during the 2008 conflict with South Ossetia, when Georgia under his leadership invaded the tiny nation at the heart of the Caucasus.

The Odessa region shares a border with Transnistria. If Saakashvili adds fuel to the fire and starts a conflict in Transnistria, its flames could spread throughout Moldova.

This could lead to a further escalation of the conflict and destabilize regional security due to a couple of reasons.First, Romania and Moldova have close ties with each other. At one point the two countries were seriously considering unification, using the German model. Second,Romania is a NATO member, which means if Bucharest gets involved in a conflict, the entire military alliance would have to back Romania. Considering there is a 1,200 member Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria which was established in the region as per the 1992 ceasefire agreement following the war in Transnistria in 1990-1992, the involvement of NATO, Russia and Ukraine in the region might lead to grave consequences for everyone, Azerbaijani news portal speculated.

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